Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Going exploring

I have posted a lot fewer articles so far than I had planned. And now, to top it off, I am taking a vacation.

Thursday morning I will be leaving for China for 3 weeks. I am taking a camera, and a notebook. I expect to have a lot to write about when I get back.

Until next month.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Sail away already

I have heard “Come Sail Away” by Styx many times without paying much attention. Recently I was caught with nothing to do but listen. I was surprised how awkward the tempo change in the middle is.

Come Sail Away begins as an overacted opera with a poorly written libretto. It ends as mindless pop-rock with some bizarre references to angles and aliens. The two parts are different songs, with the only connection being that the first begins “I am sailing away”, and the second repeats “come sail away.” The transition is made by starting the second song before the first is over.

Listening reminded me of Salieri trying to find one of his songs the young priest would recognize. Salieri had been well thought of, his music was quite popular in his day, but quickly forgotten. He does find a song from his day the priest knows, but that was Mozart.

“Come Sail Away” is the type of song that is popular in its time because it is in the current fashion. But as they age, only the songs that defined the style remain fresh. The imitations go stale.

That this song is played at all is a product of radio stations programming very narrowly defined categories and having a lot of time to fill. To marketers, radio is a good way to reach the segment of the audience who finds the late ‘70s nostalgic.

In time, what was popular then will be less important than what is good now. And we will still hear songs recorded in 1977. “Come Sail Away” will not be one of them.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Defending the country is more than just security

“If John Kerry would promise to fire Norman Mineta and start racial profiling at the airports, I would campaign for him. Unfortunately, like George Bush, Kerry doesn't travel commercial air with the little people.” Ann Coulter as quoted by Media Matters.org, 4/28/04

A number of pundits called for racial profiling at airports. And they did have a point. Systems of random checks that call for frisking old ladies clearly have room for improvement.

The other night though, I saw a movie which made me think about what America has not become. In V for Vendetta, we are shown a dystopian view of Britain ruled by a totalitarian regime elected by voters afraid of terrorist attacks. The movie is, in part, a criticism of the Bush administration. But after seeing the image of a country where the possession of a Qur'an can lead to a death sentence, I take comfort in how far away from that America is.

There have been countless times where President Bush said that we are at war against terror, not against Islam. Politicians, however, are not always known for speaking what they truly believe. Some people tried to prove Mr. Bush’s sincerity by pointing out that no one has killed more Muslims than Saddam Hussein. That is almost certainly true, but it doesn’t tell us anything about Bush’s intentions.

At a time when a lot of people were calling for increased scrutiny of Muslims at airports, George W. Bush stood by his travel secretary’s decision to not use racial profiling. Would racial profiling at airports turn us into a totalitarian regime? Of course not. But it says a lot that the administration never pushed for such a policy.

But maybe racial profiling just wasn’t a risk the President was willing to take. Maybe he stayed out of the fight because he didn’t want to make civil rights abuses a campaign issue in his reelection.

Let’s not forget the fight over the Dubai Ports deal this February. A company owned by the United Arab Emirates planned to buy a British company that controlled operations at 6 major US ports. People from both parties were doing everything they could to prevent an Arab company from managing American ports. The president said that he would not stop the deal, and would veto any legislation blocking it. In this situation, W stood against those who wanted to blacklist Arab Muslims in the name of security.

In the end, the company backed down from the pressure applied by Congress. They agreed to turn over operations at these ports to US companies.

This is not a review, but I do want to avoid leaving the impression that I am trying to say anything bad about V for Vendetta. I completely enjoyed it. While it did have messages it was trying to convey, the message never got in the way of the movie.

What I am saying, is that our President is not exploiting people’s fears of terrorism to promote bigotry. Both his words and his actions show this.

This morning our nation’s air security alert has been raised to red for the first time in response to a plot uncovered in England to blow up several planes bound for the US. This has led to much tighter security screening, and delays at airports in this country. I do not have any fear, however, that the White House’s response will make me regret my words.

Disclosure: I earn a commission if you buy from my Amazon links.

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Great Book on China

When people talk about China, they talk about the country’s importance in the global economy and its expected role in the future. I know China has the fastest growing economy in the world, and that it passed the US as the leading target of Foreign Direct Investment. I don’t need another book telling me that.

I went looking for a book to tell me what it is like to do business in China. I found it in One Billion Customers by James McGregor.

One Billion Customers is a collection of stories about business in China. It is grouped into chapters by subject. Subjects include joint ventures, the importance of relationships, and dealing with government regulators.

The first impression the book gives is chaos. It describes a country where contracts are largely unenforceable, the interpretation of laws is strongly influenced by politics, and the power structure within an office may be entirely independent of the organizational chart.

As an economy, China is a collection of local markets. The country also has a fractured regulatory environment with local governments contending with the national government, and with different agencies of the national government competing with each other.

Government officials have the power to make decisions that favor their families, friends and country.

Reporters are limited in what they can report on some domestic issues, but are welcome to attack foreign companies.

Companies that do business in the US and China can be hurt by politics within either country, or between the two countries.

This scary environment does not make the book a collection of horror stories. In some of the stories the Western companies failed, and in others they succeeded. McGregor explains what caused the outcome in each case, and gives executives important lessons for their own businesses.

The most prominent issue in the book was the importance of personal relationships. Western companies are at a disadvantage because they don’t realize they need them. Westerners tend to have a legalistic view of things, analyzing laws and contracts and loopholes. In China it is about relationships and influence. McGregor not only stresses this, but suggests how to build relationships ethically.

McGregor says the West does have an advantage in creativity. Innovation in China is limited by information controls imposed by the government, an emphasis on rote learning in the educational system, and a culture that discourages cooperation, which limits interdisciplinary work necessary for many breakthroughs.

McGregor also points out that the environment is changing. As the modernization of the economy continues, more institutions are developing to promote stability.

New management practices are also taking hold. Chinese employees and managers are becoming more familiar with Western structures and practices. Cooperation within companies is becoming more common. McGregor does offer suggestions on how to organize a company to encourage success.

McGregor also anticipates that new research techniques will be adopted by scientists working in labs set up by Western companies, and then spread.

These new developments will make it easier for Westerners to do business in China, and they remove some of the risks involved. They will also make Chinese businesses much more successful.

We have only begun to see the effects that China is going to have on the world economy.



Disclosure: If you purchase the book with the provided link, I will be paid a commission.

Sunday, July 02, 2006

Cruel Only to be Kind

The next year or two better be the worst of Wayne Rooney’s life. He should be given the benefit of the doubt by no ref, cheered by no fan, offered no endorsement and granted no honor. The English national team should disavow his behavior, and disown him.

England’s 2006 World Cup appearance probably would not have lived long in anyone’s memory. Only David Beckham’s goal on a free kick to win a 1-0 game against Ecuador really stood out. But now the 2006 team will be remembered. After tangling with Portugal defender Ricardo Carvalho, Rooney felt the need to stomp on Carvalho’s groin and shove Cristiano Ronaldo when he tried to protest to the referee. In the World Cup that set the record for red card’s awarded, Rooney got the one most deserved.

Nike had billboards with his face, chest and arms painted red, in the cross of St. George, from the English flag. Rooney was being promoted as the hope of the English team. Instead, he gave the country a black eye.

The man must have remarkable talent. England’s manager Sven-Goran Ericksson was eager to have him on the team despite a recent injury that made his availability for the World Cup questionable and his history of volatile behavior.

In the past, Rooney’s behavior came as a member of Manchester United. This time it was as a representative of England with the whole world watching. He has graduated to a new level of bad guy. He will have to experience what that means.

If he does not mind being vilified, he can continue on in his current path, scoring goals and getting thrown out of games. Hopefully if that is the case, England’s future managers have the sense to not invite him back.

Or he can accept his punishment as being deserved, and learn from it. Those athletes who learn to respect their sports and their competitors earn the forgiveness of fans. And those that are truly gifted can retire as heroes, despite starting their careers as villains.

England’s fans should allow Rooney to earn back their respect, but they have to wait until he does earn it. If they are too gentile with their criticism, too short in their memory, or worst of all, if they justify his behavior, they doom him to a bitter, empty career.

This could be the low point of a great career, or it could be a public display of wasted talent. That is up to Rooney and the English fans. We will learn the character of each.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Moral Dilemma No More

I was in the left lane of the exit ramp, stopped at the light. Next to me was a guy with a sign “stranded, hungry, please help.” I felt a bit awkward. It is hard for me not to help someone who asks for it, but I have gotten tired of people begging.

After I got going again I drove past a gas station. In front of the gas station were a couple of men, I am assuming they were Mexican, hoping someone would come by and offer them some work.

I think beggars will make me feel less awkward in the future.

I will also remember this story next time I have to listen to some blowhard complaining about illegal immigrants. They are illegal because our laws are written by idiots.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Don't Take Investment Advice

“What do you think about [insert company name here]? I have been watching it for a couple of weeks and it has gone up 40%.”

“I wouldn’t go near it. But that doesn’t mean that it won’t go up.”

I don’t say that.

“Is the company making any money?”

“Did you notice that the number of shares has been increasing by 6% per year?”

No one thinks to look at the number of shares outstanding. When they do, it doesn’t take long to realize that if it goes up the value of each share goes down by about the same amount.

I highlight the points that I think are important, and let people decide for themselves.

A couple of times though, I have crossed the line and made recommendations to people. It would be bad enough if I only did it when asked, but there have been times when I have been so excited about an investment that I brought the subject up.

It is wrong for me to make recommendations because it is always wrong to take recommendations. I mean that. It is always wrong to make investment decisions based on recommendations.

Let’s assume that the guy giving the advice knows what he is talking about. Things change all the time. New information can cause the advisor to change his mind. Is he going to track down everyone he talked to and let them know?

One thing I have seen happen is for a person to buy, see the stock go down and sell, figuring the advice was bad. Then the stock goes back up, and the person buys back in, figuring the advice was right after all. The advisor looks smart, and the advisee can’t figure out why he is “right” and yet his account balance shrinks.

There are lots of reasons to buy a stock. It is a lot harder to know when to sell. When buying the thinking is “The company is going to….” The thought process on selling is more like “What if the share price…”

The short answer to knowing when to sell is that you sell when the reason for owning the stock is no longer valid.

That is hard enough to determine when you know the reason for buying; it is not possible when you don’t have a reason.

Investing is the opposite of Lake Wobegon. Over the long term, most people are below average. It is a peculiarity of Wall Street vocabulary that makes average returns less than the average’s return.

The average’s return, as it is defined on Wall Street is the return earned by a particular basket of stocks without transaction costs or tax bills.

People who hold the average portfolio do slightly worse than the average because they either have to pay the expenses of the person managing it, or pay transaction costs to keep up with the periodic changes to the “average” portfolio if they manage it themselves.

People who do not have one of the model portfolios are attempting to beat the averages. As a group, the return for each investor, on average, is ___________. After filling in the blank, deduct transaction costs.

Some people do outperform the averages. Some even do it over the long term. There are two kinds of people who do. The first are people who succeed from dumb luck. Those choosing to implement the dumb luck strategy should play the lottery; the payouts are higher.

The second group of people who outperform the market over the long term are those who have a winning investment strategy and adhere to it.

If you have a strategy that you expect will substantially outperform the market, have at it. If you don’t, admit it. Until you develop a market beating strategy, the best strategy is to come as close as you can to the market average.

Index funds are a type of investment where the managers try to copy an average, realizing that trying to outperform the market is more likely to increase expenses than returns. For someone who wants to invest, but does not have a strategy for choosing individual investments, index funds are usually going to provide the best returns over time.

That still leaves the investor with important questions to answer, such as “Do I want to invest in stocks at all? How much of my life savings do I want in stocks? Do I want to invest in big companies, small companies or both? Do I want to invest in foreign or domestic markets?” Just about every answer will have an index that tracks it, and a fund that implements it.

One final note of caution: Stock brokers are dangerous. There are those that give sound advice and can provide guidance in making investment decisions, but I don’t know how to identify them based on a soliciting phone call. They are salesmen, not investment advisors.

Stock brokers get paid a commission when their customers make stock transactions. Investment returns go down as the number of transactions goes up. I am not about to say that every broker is trying make money by giving bad advice. I am saying that every broker working on commission has a compensation package that gives him the wrong incentives.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Doing the Little Things Wrong: Microsoft’s customer service

A company in a competitive environment cannot thrive without the support of its customers.

To make customers happy requires great products and great customer service. Great customer service is made up of lots of little things. There are many little things that other companies do right that Microsoft does wrong.

Over the past few months I have encountered Microsoft’s customer service several times, and nearly all were disappointing. I did not set out to find problems with the company. As you will see below, in a couple of cases I tried to give business to Microsoft that would have been easy to give to others. I am a shareholder of Microsoft, and I would like to give them my business whenever I can.

Answer the right question
Microsoft’s website provides a good comparison of the different versions of Visual Studio, and after determining which version is best, the web site offers to help find where to buy it. Clicking on “Locate a reseller” will provide a list of every retailer that sells any Microsoft products. Rather than making me read through the dozens of retailers that sell any Microsoft product, they could just tell me the couple that sell Visual Studio.

Provide updates for books
Microsoft Press publishes a book called Programming Indigo, the only book available on the Windows Communication Foundation. Because the book is based on a very early beta version, a lot of its examples no longer work. The download page for the book continues to provide only the old version of the examples.

Deal with customer problems
I used the Microsoft Certified Professional logo builder to create a file in the format the site’s documentation recommends for printing. The file generated appeared to contain no image. I sent an e-mail to MCP support, explaining my problem, and listing the programs I had used to try to view the file. Someone from the site responded, asking for more information. I wrote back with the answers, but I never heard from MCP help again. The printer was waiting on me, so I could not follow up and had to settle for a lower quality file format.

Anticipate customer wants
Microsoft is trying to compete with Google selling online advertising. Google offers a program called “Google AdSense” which allows people to host ads selected by Google on their web pages. I could not find any indication on the MSN website that Microsoft offered a similar service. I sent the question to one of the contact e-mail addresses for MSN, they suggested I contact some other department, and I let the matter drop.

There may be good reasons for not offering such a program at Microsoft, but there is no excuse for not having a response for people who want to advertise for them, especially when their chief competitor in that market has such a program.

Take suggestions from customers
I have an idea for a new software product. I searched all over Microsoft.com for a place to give them my suggestion. None of the categories under the “contact us” section seemed to apply, and I don’t remember which one I chose. I did get a response, but all it did was suggest that I submit the suggestion to another department, and gave me their web address. I was not able to find an e-mail address for that department.

Summary of problems
Microsoft has failed to anticipate some pretty obvious customer needs, like current information on a product they are changing or the availability of services similar to those offered by their competitors. They have not made it easy for people to make suggestions or to allow customers to collaborate with the company. Some e-mails went unanswered, and others were answered only with “talk to someone else.”

One ray of hope
I did have one interaction with Microsoft where the company’s performance was excellent. The MSDN Library has an in-work version of the documentation of the Windows Communication Foundation. Because the documentation is still being created, much of what is there is incomplete. I did find an example though, that had some syntax errors, and I decided to report them.

On every page in the MSDN Library there is a link to report problems. I very quickly got a reply from someone on the documentation team thanking me for my report, agreeing with my diagnosis and telling me that the problem would be fixed shortly.

Conclusion
Microsoft is a generally a well run company. They are good at setting targets and measuring progress. They need to apply that ability to their customer service.

As their competition increases, Microsoft needs to generate customer satisfaction and take advantage of customer collaboration if their future is going to be anywhere near as successful as their past.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Beginning at the End of the Line

Welcome to the Terminus Journal.

Everything is fair game. Movies, books, wines, restaurants. Politics, economics, sports, religion.

My name is Rick. My job is to tell the truth.

I will be setting up a link for donations. I also intend to have advertising. I hope for this blog and the accompanying website pay for the cost of my research.

I promise never to let offers of money prevent me from telling the truth. I promise to never take money from an advertisement or endorsement without stating explicitly that is what I am doing. I promise to state exactly what I think of each advertiser and its products.

I intend, but am too honest to promise, to tell the unvarnished truth even if my friends and family read this site.

Enough of that. Let’s get started.